Monad: What it is, its mainnet launch, and the price implications
Monad's mainnet is live. The high-throughput, EVM-compatible blockchain, a project that's been generating buzz for months, officially launched on November 24, 2025. But the launch wasn't exactly a straight shot to the moon. Let's dig into the numbers and see what they tell us.
Tokenomics Under the Microscope
The launch was preceded by a massive public token sale on Coinbase's new ICO platform. A cool $269 million was raised from over 85,000 participants. That's a significant amount of capital, no doubt. But the devil, as always, is in the details of the token distribution. Upon launch, a hefty 50.7% of the total MON supply was locked up. This includes allocations for the team, investors, and the treasury. Vesting is scheduled to ramp up quarterly from 2026 through 2029. So, while the headline number is impressive, the immediate circulating supply is a more nuanced story.
The initial circulating supply breaks down like this: roughly 38.5 billion MON tokens earmarked for ecosystem development, 3.3 billion MON for a community airdrop, and 7.5 billion MON stemming from the token sale. Now, consider this: the token sale participants are, presumably, looking for a return on their investment. The airdrop recipients... well, their incentives are a bit less clear-cut, and their selling pressure is a real variable.
The Price Action: A Post-Launch Dip
The price of MON experienced a brief dip below the token sale price of $0.025 following the launch. It's currently trading just above that level. This isn't unusual for ICOs. There's often a "sell the news" phenomenon, where early investors take profits, and airdrop recipients dump their free tokens. The question is: does the current price represent a genuine valuation, or is it still artificially propped up by hype and market making?
I've looked at hundreds of these launches, and the initial price action is rarely indicative of long-term success (or failure). What is interesting is the volume of trading. Is it concentrated in a few large wallets, or is it distributed among a wider base of holders? This is the kind of information that's difficult to ascertain without access to on-chain data, something that's not readily available in this initial report.
The Lock-Up: A Double-Edged Sword
The fact that over half of the token supply is locked is both a positive and a negative. On one hand, it reduces the immediate selling pressure and (in theory) provides stability. On the other hand, it creates a potential overhang. As the vesting schedules kick in, there will be a steady stream of new tokens entering the market. Will the demand be sufficient to absorb this supply? And what happens if the project fails to deliver on its promises? Those locked tokens could become a significant source of downward pressure.
The scheduled ramp-up of vesting, quarterly from 2026 through 2029, feels like a long runway. It gives the team time to build and deliver. But it also keeps the early investors and team members heavily incentivized to promote the project, regardless of its actual progress. Call me cynical (it's my job), but I've seen this movie before.
Is This Just Another Overhyped Launch?
The Monad launch presents a mixed bag. A substantial amount of capital was raised, but a significant portion of the token supply is locked, and the initial price action was underwhelming. The success of this project hinges on the team's ability to deliver on its promises and generate genuine demand for the MON token. Until then, it's just another crypto project with a lot of hype and a lot of question marks.